We expect this to be the case despite the announcement by Extinction Rebellion (XR) in the UK that in 2023 they will shift away from disruptive tactics.
First of all, this announcement is UK specific, and secondly, more radical groups such as ‘Just Stop Oil’ have since emerged – Just Stop Oil, for example, was responsible for throwing soup at the Van Gogh painting, which made news headlines worldwide.
As a result, expect to see the blocking of runways, as happened in Munich in December, and sit-ins in private jet terminals, similar to the global protest that took place in Amsterdam and other cities in November.
In fact, a good indicator of what to expect comes from 2019 and early 2020 before the pandemic caused the air travel shut down and so a stop in aviation-focused protests.
Before COVID hit, protests stopped fossil fuel delivery trains reaching Stockholm’s Arlanda airport. Meanwhile, at London Heathrow Airport, activists threatened to disrupt flights by flying drones around the perimeter of LHR.
We also expect to see more court cases against Governments’ perceived failure to tackle aviation emissions, as happened in the UK and Sweden, and legal action against airlines seen to be engaged in so-called greenwashing (see our greenwashing report).